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Friday January 16, 2004

When Will Broadband Rule the Market?

Earlier this year, Internet service providers (ISP) shutdowns and other issues slowed broadband adoption, but analysts still call high-speed Internet via cable and DSL (digital subscriber line) one of the fastest-growing technologies the world has ever seen.

Experts now say that the issues holding back broadband have more to do with access and content than with regulation or price.

And despite the fact that hopes for high-speed Internet may have been overblown, broadband has managed to eclipse other hot technologies, such as DVDs, in only its fourth year of existence, Yankee Group senior analyst Mike Goodman told NewsFactor.

"It ranks right up there with the fastest-growing products of all time," Goodman said. "Broadband isn't even close to being derailed."

Broadband Goes Wide

Goodman, who said that broadband is "doing very well on its own" without encouragement from legislation or regulation, indicated that high-speed Internet will still take five years to overtake the number of dial-up subscribers in the United States.

"It still has a long way to go," he said. "It will eventually surpass dial-up, but we don't see that happening until 2007."

The Yankee Group has predicted that the number of U.S. dial-up users in 2002 -- 54.4 million -- will drop to about 40 million by 2007, while broadband will grow from its 2002 base of 16 million users to 41.7 million in 2007.

Slow Dial-Up Death

While broadband penetration is expected to speed up rapidly, the Dec

line of dial-up will be a slow process, according to Goodman.

He said there is still a fair amount of life in dial-up because of its lower cost and effective uses, then added that once broadband takes the lead, the demise of dial-up will come faster.

"You'll see a very slow Dec

line in dial-up, whereas broadband will just continue to grow," he said. "Ultimately, [dial-up] will die, because at some point it becomes inefficient to maintain it any longer."

Source: Courtesy of NewsFactor Network, author Jay Lyman

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